Thesis Drift Watch
Pre-configured thesis drift monitoring. Declare break-conditions for each position; the engine watches them continuously and surfaces alerts when conditions diverge from the thesis.
Overview
The Thesis Drift Watch template keeps your Investment Diary honest over time. Declare break-conditions per position; the engine watches them every cycle, and when something material challenges a break-condition, it surfaces an alert with evidence and proposes an action. Every alert and every accept/reject is logged.
What it does
Break-condition monitoring
Each position carries declared break-conditions. The engine checks them every cycle against new signals, fundamentals, and price data.
Action proposals
When a break-condition is challenged, the action queue surfaces a proposal with evidence. You decide: accept, reject, or dismiss with a logged reason.
Debate clearance
Every drift alert went through the three-role debate (Advocate / Skeptic / Adjudicator) and cleared the materiality bar before reaching you.
Audit trail
Every alert, every accept and reject, and every logged reason is retained. The IC memo stops being a dead document.
Example drift alerts
Break-condition “FCF margin expanding” challenged by 8-K + prepared remarks. Debate: PASS with caveat (Adjudicator severity 70). Action queue: review thesis, update break-condition or dismiss with reason. Diary annotated.
All three break-conditions challenged in the same cycle. Adjudicator severity 85. Action queue proposes reconsider; evidence chain attached with source, timestamp, and excerpt. Your decision is logged with your reason.
Earnings call confirms break-conditions intact. Adjudicator verdict: TAILWIND, severity 65. Diary entry noting confirmation logged automatically. No action required.
Recommended configuration
Designed for
Operator use cases
- — Engineer-investors maintaining a 5–15 name long book with thesis discipline
- — Analyst desks tracking thesis integrity across a portfolio
- — Anyone who wants the IC memo to stay a living document, not a dead file
- — Teams that need an audit trail of every accept/reject and the reason behind it
Deploy this template
Add your positions, write break-conditions per thesis, and the engine watches them continuously.